How Likely For Trump's Gaza Plan Will Work?

Hamas's partial acceptance toward Donald Trump's Gaza agreement last Friday has been welcomed internationally representing the closest Israel and Hamas have come in two years toward stopping the war within the Gaza Strip.

How Close Are We to an Agreement?

Hamas's qualified support of the Trump plan is the closest mediators have reached over the last several months to a comprehensive conclusion to the war inside the Gaza Strip. However, they remain far off from a deal.

The US president's multi-point proposal to stop the war requires that the group release all hostages within 72 hours, surrender control to an international council headed by Donald Trump, and lay down its weapons. As compensation, Israel would slowly withdraw its soldiers from the Gaza Strip and return more than one thousand detainees.

The proposal includes a surge of assistance into Gaza, parts of which are experiencing starvation, and recovery financing to Gaza, which has been almost entirely devastated.

The organization gave consent to three points: the release of all hostages, the surrendering of power and the pullout of Israeli forces from Gaza. The group said the remaining parts of the agreement must be discussed alongside additional Palestinian factions, as it is a component of a unified national position.

Effectively, this means the group seeks more discussions on the contentious elements of the Trump deal, particularly the demand for its disarmament, and a solid timeline regarding Israeli troop pullout.

Where and When Will Negotiations Happen?

Negotiators have flown to Cairo to work out specifics to bridge the divide between the two sides.

Discussions begin on Monday and it is anticipated to produce conclusions over the next several days, whether positive or negative.

Trump shared a picture of a chart showing Gaza on Saturday night depicting the boundary up to which Israeli troops should withdraw stating that if the group consents to it, that the ceasefire would start right away. The US president is anxious to conclude the conflict as it approaches its second anniversary and prior to the Nobel committee declares who receives the Nobel Peace Prize on 10 October, an issue that is a frequently mentioned focus for him.

The Israeli prime minister said an agreement to bring Israeli captives home should preferably happen in the coming days.

Which Differences Are Left?

The two sides have hedged their positions heading into the talks.

Hamas has consistently refused to lay down its arms in past negotiations. It has given no indication whether its position has shifted regarding this issue, even as it broadly accepts to the US proposal, with qualifications. Trump and Israel have made it clear that there exists little wiggle room on the disarmament issue and are determined to bind Hamas with binding language in any plan going forward.

Hamas additionally stated it agreed to surrendering authority over Gaza to a technocratic administration, as outlined by the Trump plan. However, in its announcement, Hamas clarified it would agree to a Palestinian technocratic governing body, not the international body that Trump laid out in the proposal.

The Israeli government has also sought to keep the issue regarding its military pullout unclear. Just hours after announcing Trump’s plan in a joint press conference in Washington last week, Netanyahu published a recording reassuring Israelis that troops would stay across much of Gaza.

Last Saturday evening, Netanyahu reiterated that forces would remain inside Gaza, saying that captives would be returned as the Israeli military would remain within Gaza's interior.

Netanyahu’s position appears to conflict against the requirement in the US proposal that Israeli forces fully withdraw from Gaza. The group will demand guarantees that Israeli forces will fully withdraw and that if Hamas surrenders its weapons, Israeli troops will not return to Gaza.

Negotiators will have to bridge these gaps, securing firm, unambiguous terms regarding giving up weapons from the group. They will also have to demonstrate to Hamas that the Israeli government will truly withdraw from the territory and that there will be global assurances that will compel the Israeli state to adhere with the conditions of the deal.

The disagreements might be resolved, and the United States will undoubtedly push the two sides to achieve an agreement. However, negotiations have got close to an agreement previously abruptly failing several times in the past two years, leaving both parties wary of celebrating before pen is on paper.

Jose Kemp PhD
Jose Kemp PhD

A local transportation expert with over 10 years of experience in providing efficient taxi services in the Lecce region.